How to quantify risk
We live in world of miscalculated risk. Here are some examples from my own experience:
- My friend used to take the London Underground to work every day. After the 7/7 bombings, his wife told him stop. So now he cycles to work.
- I have another friend who has two children. He and his wife refuse to get them inoculated against mumps, measles and rubella. Instead, they plan on an 18-year course of homeopathic ‘inoculations’.
- My wife will only buy a lottery ticket on a rollover week, when the prize is bigger. (Coincidentally, her father was struck by lightning. Twice. And lived. So perhaps her family really is a special case.)
- I am a pilot flying light aircraft. The media report light plane crashes with the same fervour as big airliner crashes. Yet more people die on the roads in the UK every day than die annually in light aircraft crashes. Annual road deaths are never reported.
- There was huge outrage in the media about illusionist Derren Brown’s televised Russian Roulette. He’s too clever to take any chances at all but everybody fell for it.
So, I was fascinated to hear (from my chum Andrew - thanks!) about Dr. Frank Duckworth’s attempts to come up with a scale to measure risks. It is similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes. Here it is:
- 8.0 Suicide
- 7.2 Russian roulette (one game, one bullet) [I don't think this applies to Derren Brown]
- 7.1 Continuing smoking cigarettes (male aged 35 - 40 a day)
- 6.9 Continuing smoking cigarettes (male aged 35 - 20 a day)
- 6.7 Continuing smoking cigarettes (male aged 35 - 10 a day)
- 6.4 Deep sea fishing (40 year career)
- 6.3 Rock climbing over 20 years
- 5.5 Accidental falls (new born male)
- 5.5 Lifetime car travel (new born male)
- 5.5 Dying while vacuuming, washing up or walking down the street
- 4.6 Murder (new born male)
- 4.2 Rock climbing (one session)
- 1.9 100 mile car journey (sober middle aged driver)
- 1.7 100 mile flight
- 1.6 Destructive asteroid impact (in the life-time of a new born male)
- 0.3 100 mile rail journey
Sources: The Sum, Chance News 7.11
federico wrote:
I’m not sure the phrase <> has any statistical sense.
Far more people drive the UK roads compared to those that fly light aircrafts.
Posted on 12-Feb-08 at 2:42 pm | Permalink
federico wrote:
Ooops, the phrase was “more people die on the roads in the UK every day than die annually in light aircraft crashes. “
Posted on 12-Feb-08 at 2:42 pm | Permalink
Matthew Stibbe wrote:
Yes, I understand that more people drive than fly in light aircraft. This is the very thing that makes it ironic that the media report light aircraft crashes and not car crashes.
Posted on 12-Feb-08 at 6:27 pm | Permalink
Matthew Stibbe wrote:
There’s a very interesting book called The Killing Zone which examines what causes light aircraft accidents. It gives a figure of 1.25 fatal accidents per 100,000 flight hours in the USA in 1999 (the latest figures quoted in the book). I recall reading that riding a motorbike was more dangerous on an hour for hour basis. The interesting point that the book makes is that flying less is more dangerous than flying more. Most of these accidents occur in the first 300 hours or so of a pilot’s career and happen more often to pilots who are less current.
Posted on 12-Feb-08 at 7:57 pm | Permalink
the illusionist wrote:
[...] said to be employed by stage magicians in order to “cast their spell” of illusioblogcritics.orgHow to quantify risk We live in world of miscalculated risk. Here are some examples from my own experience: My friend [...]
Posted on 08-Mar-08 at 10:06 am | Permalink
Bad Language / Immunisation, bad information, faulty thinking wrote:
[...] in February I wrote a post about how to quantify risk. One of the examples I gave was of friends who refuse to inoculate their children against measles, [...]
Posted on 21-Mar-08 at 6:10 pm | Permalink